Container imports to the U.S. are finally starting to slow down after an unusually long peak shipping season that lasted through the summer and early fall. This information comes from the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
This slowdown follows several months of higher-than-expected cargo volumes at major U.S. ports. Retailers continued to bring in goods despite challenges like tariffs, inflation, and rising transportation costs.
According to the Global Port Tracker, ports handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August, which is a 0.4% increase from July, but a 0.7% decrease compared to the same month last year. August seems to have been the busiest month of 2026, which is a shift from last month’s forecast predicting September would take that title.
“We are likely past the busiest part of the year,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
“The peak season began early and lasted through the summer and early fall, with month-to-month differences often being minimal,” Gold stated.
The latest forecast estimates September imports at 2.28 million TEUs, down from the projected 2.31 million TEUs a month ago. In October, numbers are expected to drop to 2.25 million TEUs before falling to 2 million TEUs in November.
Despite the anticipated slowdown, imports for several months are still higher than last year. September volumes are expected to increase by 8.2% year-over-year, followed by an 8.5% rise in October.
This updated outlook comes after a peak season that has consistently exceeded expectations.
Retailers imported goods earlier this year to avoid upcoming tariff changes and navigate supply chain uncertainties. Initially, there were high hopes that imports would peak early and then decline through the summer.
However, volumes stayed high, impacted by shipping delays and strong consumer demand, extending the typical peak season.
This strength has been seen at specific ports. The Port of Los Angeles had its busiest three-month period on record in June, July, and August, while the Port of Savannah recently reported a record September, handling 504,015 TEUs, which is a 3.7% increase from the previous year.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the economic outlook remains mixed, with consumers continuing to spend even as their confidence appears to weaken.
“Consumers seem to be walking a fine line between confidence and caution. Consumer confidence indexes are hitting multi-year lows, yet spending remains strong in the face of rising inflation,” Hackett remarked.
For the entire year, the Global Port Tracker now expects imports at major U.S. container ports to reach 25.8 million TEUs, a 1.4% increase from 25.4 million TEUs in 2025. This estimate is slightly above last month’s forecast of 25.7 million TEUs.
Looking ahead, imports for January 2027 are predicted at 2.07 million TEUs, a 1.9% decrease year-over-year, followed by 1.92 million TEUs in February, an increase of 1%.
For retailers, the longer shipping season means that most merchandise needed for the holidays is already in the country, lowering the chances of another significant import surge before the end of the year.
“Most holiday merchandise has already arrived, and the rest of the year will mostly involve last-minute restocking and prepping for early 2027,” said Gold.